Phoenix’s Economy — One of the Best in the West

Good news for Phoenix came from a report from the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings.

 

Below are keys points from the study reported by the Phoenix Business Journal.

  • For the fourth quarter of 2011, Phoenix’s economy ranked as one of the best in the West as well as in the Top 20 of  all metro areas in the study, according to the report.
  • Phoenixwas one  of five cities in the West that closed out 2011 with four consecutive months of job growth, albeit the growth slowed toward the end of the year.
  • Manufacturing  also ticked up inPhoenix,  as the region landed in the Top 40 in terms of production, and was gathering steam toward the end of the year, according to the report.  Output, however, was weak, with growth of only 0.3 percent in Phoenixduring the last quarter of 2011.
  • The report also highlights that Western cities such as Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas all saw declines in their      unemployment rates in 2011.

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/blog/business/2012/03/phoenix-economy-among-fastest-growing.html?ana=e_du_pub&s=article_du&ed=2012-03-28

For the full report go to the following link:

https://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/Metro/metro_monitor/2012_03_metro_monitor/0328_metro_monitor.pdf

Twitter@FletchWilcox

Fletcher Wilcox

V.P. Business Development, Real Estate Analyst

Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc.

 

Legislative Update

Arizona SB 1014/Chapter 36 was signed by Republican Gov. Jan Brewer on March 16. Effective 90 days after adjournment, it amends current law concerning application fees for financial institutions and enterprises, including licensing for consumer lenders, escrow agents, and loan originators. The bill is sponsored by Senator John McComish (R-Ahwatukee).

 

On March 22, the Arizona Senate voted unanimously to pass HB 2079, a bill modifying mortgage broker’s license application requirements. The bill is now awaiting concurrence in amendments by the House. As amended, the bill would require that, in order to qualify for a mortgage banker license or a renewal of a license, an applicant must at all times have and maintain a net worth of not less than $25,000 (instead of $250,000) and that negative equity in a person’s primary residence would not impact their net worth for these purposes.

AMLA Leadership Group Meets with AZDFI & ADRE

 On February 29th, the 2012 AMLA Leadership Group spent some time with the Commissioner of the Arizona Department of Real Estate; Judith Lowe, and the Assistant Superintendent for the Arizona Department of Financial Institutions; Robert Charlton. We also benefited with the participation of Chris Dunshee from licensing division at AZDFI.

AMLA is very pleased that for the past three years, our Leadership group has benefited from one on one sessions with the Leaders of these Departments. Commissioner Lowe kicked off the event with a recap of statistics for the Department of Real Estate and then shared the key topics of concern for ADRE.  As a group we discussed at great length how the Department of Real Estate, the Department of Financial Institutions and the Mortgage Task Fraud are diligently working together to end the latest versions of Mortgage Fraud. They are meeting on a regular basis to share information and determine areas that need investigation. Overall we were advised that Fraud continues to be prevalent in Arizona and the work continues.

Mr. Charlton and Mr. Dunshee participated in a lengthy discussion with the group regarding polices for transitioning from a registered loan officer position to licensed loan officer.  At this time AZDFI reminded us that policy does not allow a loan officer who is registered to move to licensed status without the requirements being met, and most important the fact that no temporary status exists.  It was confirmed that AZDFI expects no changees to their policies regarding this issue, or background checks and credit reports. As we concluded our discussion we had a review of pending legislation and the potential outcomes so that AMLA Leadership members would be better informed.

Once again, we had a very informative time and each year the topics change just like our industries.  Next up we will be meeting with Attorney General Horne and his staff.

Please consider joining the AMLA Leadership group in 2013.  It just seems to get better each and every year.

Posted:  Sherry Olsen AMLA VP Education-Leadership

Mortgage Forecast from MBA

From Mike Fratantoni –  MBA’s PHD Economist in  MBA’s Rsearch Department:

A few highlights from February’s forecast:

 We have increased our estimate of economic growth, and nudged down our expectations for the unemployment rate in 2012 given the stronger job reports the last two months.

  • Our expectations for mortgage rates are essentially unchanged.  With the Fed on hold, and a growing economy, we are anticipating that mortgage rates will slowly inch upwards through the year to end 2012 at about 4.5%.
  • Home construction has picked up a bit, and we reflect that.  Our outlook for home sales is little changed, with a just a bit more strength in new home sales. 
  • We still are anticipating that home prices will be modestly positive in 2012.  (There was a technical change that impacts our forecast with respect to home prices – the median home price series put out by Census and NAR were revised lower.  Even with the same HPA assumption, this means somewhat lower purchase origination volume for the year than we had previously estimated.)
  • For the origination forecast, the primary change is with respect to the Q1 2012 data.  Purchase applications have come in weaker than we had anticipated, while refinance applications have come in considerably stronger.  We reflect that in our Q1 originations estimates, but our view for the remainder of the year is little changed.  As a result, our total originations forecast for 2012 is now just over $1 trillion.  We were at $992 billion in January.  As we have reported, 10-20% of refi app volume has been for HARP loans in recent weeks.
  • Our estimate is for roughly $1 trillion in total origination volume in 2013, but with a significant shift towards purchase business as home sales increase, home price appreciation picks up closer to trend, the cash share of sales drops, and sales activity is focused in the better performing/higher cost markets.  We expect refinance volume to drop sharply as mortgage rates continue to increase.
  • We continue to see an escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis and/or the situation in Iran/Middle East as the principal downside risks to our forecast.  We do see some upside opportunity in terms of purchase volume if we get a stronger spring buying season as a result of the positive job market data. 

 

There is more thorough data on our website, mbaa.org

Phoenix Housing Market Recovery is On Track

Posted in Phoenix – Tucson Market  |  Posted on 02-02-2012  |  Written by Metrostudy News

(Phoenix, AZ – February 2, 2012) Most local housing and economic indicators are trending in the right direction in the Phoenix housing market, according to Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

New home starts in the Phoenix area numbered 6,608 in 2011, which is the calendar-year low for this housing cycle and the lowest level of activity since 1967.  Starts, which are based on Metrostudy’s lot-by-lot survey of all new construction subdivisions in Maricopa and Pinal Counties, are down 8% from 2010.  “Starts in the second half of 2011 were up 30% from the same period the previous year, which suffered unduly from the hangover following the expiraiton of the homebuyer tax credits,” said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy’s Phoenix division.

Regarding new-home supply, inventory figures are reasonably low, which indicates that builders are constructing homes only to meet current demand.  Total new home inventory (single family), which includes all homes that have been started but are yet to exhibit any evidence of occupancy, fell to only 4,519 units at the end of December. The number of new inventory units that are finished but empty, many of which are under contract, fell 28% from the end of 2010 and now number 1,847 units, which is the low point for this housing cycle.  This represents a 3.3-month supply, “which is manageable,” said Sage, “given the current state of real estate. The relatively low count of new homes in inventory is critical to an eventual recovery.  It illustrates that the problem is not with new-home supply as much as with demand.  When buyers return, builders will have to start more homes because they will not be able to satisfy the demand from their current inventory.”

“It’s been a long few years for homebuilding, but things are looking up.  Resale prices are starting to recover, which will help builders be more competitive.  In 2011 resale homes, particularly those appealing to investors and first-time buyers, were priced below replacement cost.  That type of inventory is quickly clearing out, so some demand can be expected to spill over to new homes. Employment is up, unemployment is down, retail sales are up, foreclosures are down, delinquencies are down, resale demand is strong, resale supply is low, home prices are rising, and new-home inventory is low. The recovery is on track, and I believe home starts will be up this year more than most people expect.”

For information contact:
Ben Sage @ 480.756.9300
email: bsage@metrostudy.com

New Director named for Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Just hours ago, President Obama took the bold political step of using a recess appointment to name Richard Cordray as the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), effective through the end of the U.S. Senate’s next full session (i.e., year end 2013).  The official announcement was made this afternoon at a campaign-style event in Cleveland, Ohio, a key presidential battleground state.  Cordray’s appointment comes over significant objections from both House and Senate Republicans to the governance structure of the bureau.  While not objecting to Cordray’s qualifications per se, Republican leaders had been using procedural measures (pro forma sessions) to prevent a recess appointment absent structural changes.  Today’s action promises to further exacerbate the political tensions between Democrats and Republicans.

Unless Cordray’s appointment is ultimately found to be unlawful and an injunction issued against the CFPB’s exercise of its new powers, the Bureau will now be able to implement its full range of authority under the Dodd-Frank Act, including the ability to regulate non-bank financial institutions and to issue rules dealing with unfair, deceptive, and abusive acts and practices.  Without a Director, the CFPB was limited to using those powers inherited from existing banking regulators.  While MBA supports the goal of stronger consumer protection through a unified regulator, a fully empowered CFPB presents a number of new challenges for our industry.

You should be aware that, despite the politics involved, MBA has taken steps to establish a positive working relationship with the CFPB’s leadership, including my own personal outreach to Mr. Cordray.  We will continue our efforts – including direct MBA member engagement — to help ensure that the CFPB understands issues important to our industry and crafts appropriate policies.

At the same time, MBA continues to support the need for important structural changes to the CFPB, namely that the Director’s position be replaced by a five-person Commission, that the CFBP be subject to the normal congressional appropriations process, that CFPB rules be subject to review by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and that votes to overturn CFPB decisions by the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) take a simple majority rather than a 2/3 vote.  In short, the CFPB’s influence on the financial services sector will be unprecedented, and MBA will continue to urge that appropriate institutional checks and balances be in place to ensure that the CFPB’s authority is used wisely and judiciously.

More than ever, I believe it is critical that any new regulatory policies impacting mortgage finance are sound and well-reasoned.  MBA will be working with our members and other industry and consumer groups to make sure our voice continues to be heard in the coming CFPB policy debates.

This message, including any attachments, contains confidential information intended for a specific individual and purpose, and is protected by law.  If you are not the intended recipient, you should delete this message and you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, or distribution of this message, or the taking of any action based on it is strictly prohibited.
_____________________________________

Investing in communities
David H. Stevens
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mortgage Bankers Association
1717 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W., Suite 400
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: (202) 557-2701
Fax: (202) 289-3943
dstevens@mortgagebankers.org
www.mortgagebankers.org

FHFA Comment Letter

December 23, 2011

 Mr. Edward DeMarco
Acting Director
Federal Housing Finance Agency
1700 G Street, NW, 4th Floor
Washington, DC 20552

Submission to: Servicing_Comp_Public_Comments@FHFA.gov

The undersigned thank the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) for the opportunity to comment on its “Alternative Mortgage Servicing Discussion Paper,” released on September 27, 2011.  The world of servicing has undergone unprecedented stress over the course of the economic downturn.  We therefore appreciate the interest of FHFA and other regulators in ensuring that we collectively work to improve service to borrowers, reduce financial risk to servicers, ensure flexibility for guarantors to better manage non-performing loans, promote market liquidity and enhance opportunities for competition in the origination as well as servicing markets.

 However, we believe that any change to the current servicing compensation model is unnecessary to accomplish these goals.  The current system has served the market well for decades and still remains a viable option, even in these tumultuous times.  Furthermore, any consideration of changing mortgage servicing compensation is premature in light of the ongoing process of developing national servicing standards, in addition to the constantly changing regulatory environment due to the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank).

 While we do not endorse a change to the current servicing compensation model, we do recognize that there is a feeling amongst the regulators that there is a need for change.  If FHFA feels strongly that making fundamental changes to the servicing fee structure is necessary, of the options presented in the September 27th discussion paper, we urge FHFA to adopt the cash reserve model.  Of the two proposals presented, it is the only one which truly meets FHFA’s stated objective while ensuring minimal disruptions to the market.

The Cash Reserve Proposal, originally introduced by MBA and the Clearinghouse, establishes a minimum “normal servicing fee” and proposes the creation of a reserve account which servicers can use to conduct catastrophic nonperforming loan servicing.  The reserve would be built up over time by placing a small portion of the mortgage cash flow (e.g., 3 bps) into a custodial reserve account, tied to a particular vintage of loans.  Any unused portions would eventually be refunded to the mortgage servicer if they are not required to cover unanticipated operating costs of the servicer.  Under this structure, use of the reserves should be the exception, not the rule, and would not be expected to occur under normal market conditions.

We believe that this approach is the best of the options presented, though we would reiterate: the fact remains that despite the issues in the mortgage servicing market and the need for investment and training in servicing, the current mortgage servicing compensation structure is appropriate and suitable to meet the needs of the market.

Thank you for your consideration of our comments.  If you have any questions, please contact (480) 538-5565.

Sincerely,

Jannine Bielesch
Regional Manager, US Bank
2012 Vice President Elect of Advocacy – Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association

Don Hagan
President Elect 2012 – Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association

Federal Housing Finance Agency Re: Servicing

Mortgage Action Alliance, Inc. (MAA) members are encouraged to take action today by sending written comments to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) stating that:

  • No change is needed to the current servicer compensation model as this model has served the market well for decades;
  • The changing regulatory environment makes consideration of any change to the model premature at this time, especially in light
    of the ongoing process to develop national servicing standards; and, If FHFA is determined to adjust the current compensation structure, the cash reserve model is the best option and also the
    only option that meets the stated goals of FHFA.

On September 27, 2011, FHFA issued Alternative Mortgage Servicing Compensation, a discussion paper seeking public comment on two servicing fee structures. The first structure, which was proposed to FHFA by MBA, would make only modest changes to the existing fee structure. It would require the servicer to set aside separate cash account within the MBS trust which would be a reserve for unusual non-performing loan servicing costs. If not needed, the cash would inure to the servicer. The second fee structure proposed by FHFA in the discussion paper, would make some fundamental
changes to the current fee structure.

After thorough review and analysis by member committees, MBA submitted comments to FHFA. MAA members are now urged to take similar action.

COMMENTS MUST BE RECEIVED TO FHFA BY DECEMBER 26th.

To download a sample letter to send to FHFA, click HERE.

To review the FHFA’s September 27th discussion paper, click HERE.

For additional background provided on MBA’s Resource Center for Residential Mortgage Servicing for the 21st Century, click HERE.

MAA is the premier grassroots lobbying organization of the real estate finance industry. The mission of the Mortgage Action Alliance is to further build a network of individuals dedicated to strengthening the industry’s voice and lobbying power in Washington, DC and state capitals. Please forward this email to your industry colleagues and encourage them to take action as well. If they are not MAA members, they will first need to join for free by clicking here.

Thank you!

Please direct comments
or questions to wkooper@mortgagebankers.org.

 

Increase to Guarantee Fees with the GSEs

As members of AMLA, we are providing you with this call to action to ensure that you are aware of events taking place, and additionally, request that you take action.  There is a piece of legislation that has grown legs, has gained much support and is moving too fast without taking into consideration the harm that it will cause to the housing industry.

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MortgageEducation.com

AMLA has partnered up with MortgageEducation.Com to bring continuing education to our members. MortgageEducation.com is a leading, nationwide NMLS-approved mortgage education provider, offering pre-licensure and continuing education, as well as preparation materials for the SAFE national and state exams. The company is one of the few innovative providers who began offering internet-based mortgage education over 10 years ago and the only provider with a nationwide offering in all available formats. MortgageEducation.com has provided resources for thousands of companies around the nation. AMLA Members receive a 25% discount on the 8 Hour Arizona State CE! The NMLS fee is included, and course completions will be reported to NMLS within 1 Business day.

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