V.I.P Mortgage

Capital Commentary
- by Kirk Willison
kwillison@archmi.com
www.archmi.com
Direct 202-714-8606

Warmer and longer days are brightening our surroundings and maycontribute to a rosier outlook for housing.

 

So let's put our troubles behind us (for at least one issue of the CapitalCommentary) and laissez le bon temps rouler!

 

1-Big Thing: Housing's Looking Up!

 

Is the worst of housing's downturn behind us?

 

Why it matters: Builder and buyer sentiments are critical componentsof a vibrant housing market and both are looking up these days.

 

As the chart below indicates, the Housing Market Index, a monthly calculation of home builder sentiment, shows rising optimism for three consecutive months. It is now at its highest point in six months.

 

Source: National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo

 

Bloomberg News touted: "Housing Is Suddenly a Bright Spot in theEconomy."

 

What they're saying:

"After bottoming in November, single-family housing starts havepicked up a bit — not the surge we saw in mid-2020, but another sign that builders feel like they are in a position to continue building in the current market rather than pulling back even more." - Conor Sen, Bloomberg News.

 

Reviewing the state of the nation's housing economy in a recent weekly Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) Digest, ArchCapital Group's Global Chief Economist Parker Ross, wrote:

"The share of homes selling within two weeks has climbed to 46%,6 percentage points above the typical pre-pandemic level for this time of year. Competition has pushed prices up on a seasonally adjusted basis since the end of 2022, with annualized price growth now well into the double digits."

 

The bottom line: The rising optimism among home builders and faster-selling homes suggests that the worst of housing's downturn may be behind us.

 

2. Chart of the Week - Home Prices Up

 

Source: Lance Lambert, Fortune Magazine

 

Back in the bleaker housing days of last fall, home prices were declining in most markets. Despite the Federal Reserve continually raising interest rates over the past 12 months, more than 70% of markets showed home prices rising in March.

 

3. Millennials Move from Rent to Own

 

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